A research publication on consequential SEC ownership signals.
13dwatch surfaces the filings that matter — activist crossings, insider clusters, and the rare occasions when both signals appear together.
What we track
Every Schedule 13D and 13G filed with the SEC is a public record. Most are routine. A small fraction are consequential — they precede significant price moves, proxy fights, or structural changes.
13dwatch filters for the signal. We score each filing on four axes: Conviction, Crowding, Echo, and Velocity. A T1 rating requires an activist filer, a prior stake that exceeded 18 months, and insider buying within a ±90-day window. That cluster rarely appears by coincidence.
We do not predict outcomes. We document conditions.
The tiers
Activist filer with a prior stake exceeding 18 months, and Echo (insider buying) present within ±90 days. All three criteria must be met.
One or more Tier 1 criteria met, but not all three. Elevated signal with incomplete confirmation.
Noteworthy ownership disclosure without activist intent criteria. Included for completeness and cross-reference value.
The four metrics
How much of the filing represents a deliberate, concentrated position relative to the filer's historical behavior. High conviction suggests this is not a passive allocation.
How many other institutional holders are already in the same name at similar or higher ownership thresholds. Low crowding leaves more room for the filer to act alone.
Whether insider purchases (Code P transactions) appear in the target company within ±90 days of the activist filing. The Echo is the rarest and most consequential criterion.
How quickly the stake was accumulated relative to the filer's own historical median. Faster accumulation correlates with shorter time-to-disclosure and higher urgency.
Metric values are for subscribers.
Non-subscribers see the signal labels and filing context. Subscribers see the actual Conviction, Crowding, Echo, and Velocity scores — the numbers behind the tier.
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